Read the beetle example in that article. It's exactly on point.

You believe Anthropic is a rare subspecies of beetle (an "unsavory" company) based on a certain pattern on its back (certain NDA-related behavior). I and several others here have noted that lots of companies have that pattern on their backs. Which means that you are basing your conclusion on weak evidence. If you use Bayes Theorem to calculate the actual probability, you'll find that "[trying] to hide the existence of secret non-disparagement agreements" barely moves the needle at all. Does it move the needle? Sure. But much less than you think.

Even if it only moved the needle a tiny amount… that’s still a non-zero amount?

And therefore a non-zero amount of relevance?

Your original point carries an infinitesimal amount of weight. Yes, you win.

Win what? You haven’t even advanced a coherent argument yet… hence the original reply.