The cracks are showing, and all the “AI is going to eliminate 50% of white collar jobs” fear mongering is simply signaling we’re in the final stages before the bubble implosion.
The AI bros desperately need everyone to believe this is the future. But the data just isn’t there to support it. More and more companies are coming out saying AI was good to have, but the mass productivity gains just aren’t there.
A bunch of companies used AI as an excuse to do mass layoffs only to then have to admit this was basically just standard restructuring and house cleaning (eg Amazon).
Theres so much focus on white collar jobs in the US but these have already been automated and offshored to death. What’s there now is truly a survival of the fittest. Anything that’s highly predicable, routine, and fits recurring patterns (ie what AI is actually good at) was long since offshored to places like India. To the extent that AI does cause mass disruption to jobs, the India tech and BPO sectors would be ground zero… not white collar jobs in the US.
The AI bros are in a fight for their careers and the signal is increasingly pointing to the most vulnerable roles out there at the moment being all those tangentially tacked onto the AI hype cycle. If real measurable value doesn’t show up very soon (likely before year end) the whole party will come crashing down hard.
Right now is the good time for the job market. The S&P is at an all time high.
In the next recession, I expect massive layoffs in white collar work and there is no way those jobs are coming back on the other side.
40-50% of US white collar work hours are spent on procedural, rules-based tasks. Then another large chunk is managing the people doing procedural, rules-based tasks and support of people doing rules based tasks. Salary and benefits are 50% of operating costs for most business.
Maybe you do something really interesting and unique but that is just not what most white collar workers in the US are doing.
I know for myself, these are the final days of white collar work before I am unemployable as a white collar worker. I don't think the company I work for will exist either in 5 years. It is not a matter of Claude code being able to update a legacy system or not. It is that the tide hasn't really gone out in 15 years and all these zombie companies are going to get wiped out at the same time AI is automating the white collar jobs. Delaying the business cycle from clearing over and over is not a free lunch, it is a bill that has been stacking up for a long time.
On the other side, the business as usual of today won't be an option.
From my own white collar experience, I think if you view procedural rules-based tasks as a graph, the automation of any one task depends so much on other tasks being automated. So it will seem like the automation is not working but at some point you get a contagion of automation. Then so much automation will happen at once.
The openclaw stuff for me is a prime signal we are now reaching the maximal size of the bubble before it pops - the leaders of the firms at the frontier are lost and have no vision - this a huge warning signal. E.g Steve Jobs was always ahead of the curve in the context of the personal computer revolution - there was no outside individual who had a better view of where things were heading.
There isnt gonna be a huge event in the public markets though, except for Nvidia, Oracle and maybe MSFT. Firms that are private will suffer enormously though.
The AI bros desperately need everyone to believe this is the future. But the data just isn’t there to support it. More and more companies are coming out saying AI was good to have, but the mass productivity gains just aren’t there.
A bunch of companies used AI as an excuse to do mass layoffs only to then have to admit this was basically just standard restructuring and house cleaning (eg Amazon).
Theres so much focus on white collar jobs in the US but these have already been automated and offshored to death. What’s there now is truly a survival of the fittest. Anything that’s highly predicable, routine, and fits recurring patterns (ie what AI is actually good at) was long since offshored to places like India. To the extent that AI does cause mass disruption to jobs, the India tech and BPO sectors would be ground zero… not white collar jobs in the US.
The AI bros are in a fight for their careers and the signal is increasingly pointing to the most vulnerable roles out there at the moment being all those tangentially tacked onto the AI hype cycle. If real measurable value doesn’t show up very soon (likely before year end) the whole party will come crashing down hard.