The core issue with the Gartner hype cycle (beyond it not being a cycle!) is that it simply does not apply to "any new tech," tautologically it only applies to hype-driven tech with staying power. Tech which is not driven by hype (e.g. mRNA vaccines driven by urgent need) don't have a trough of disappointment, just a steady slope upwards. And tech which is driven entirely by hype (Theranos) stays in the trough of disappointment forever.
The Gartner hype cycle is astrology for MBAs: it cannot fail, it can only be failed by those lacking faith to see its wisdom.
mRNA could be said to be in the trough of disillusionment -- didn't prevent COVID as initially promised, and has problems like causing heart damage in rare cases.
This disillusionment is evidenced by lower proportion of people seeking to take such injections now.
The trough of disillusionment really refers to serious analysis of a technology's problems, not idiotic conspiracy theories spread on Twitter. This is like saying 5G entered the trough of disillusionment because of the threat of telepathic Zionists.
In Realityland, the COVID vaccine was an overwhelming success.
I'm a bit amused to learn that the term "Gartner Hype Cycle" is actually some official term from Gartner. I always thought it was a tongue-in-cheek reference to the fact that Gartner is at is core a hype merchant. Reality laps satire once again.
The Gartner hype cycle is astrology for MBAs: it cannot fail, it can only be failed by those lacking faith to see its wisdom.