Yes! I have had the exact same mental model. The biggest losers in this news are the groups building frontier models. They are the ones with huge valuations but if the optimizations becomes even close to true, its a massive threat to their business model. My feet are on the ground but I do still believe that the world does not comprehend how much compute it can use...as compute gets cheaper we will use more of it. Ignoring equity pricing, this benefits all other parties.
My big current conspiracy theory is that this negative sentiment toward Nvidia from Deepseek's release is spread by people who actually want to buy more stock at a cheaper price. Like, if you know anything about the topic, it's wild to assume that this will drive demand for GPUs anywhere but up. If Nvidia came out with a Jetson like product that can run the full 670B R1, they could make infinite money. And in the datacenter section, companies will stumble over each other to get the necessary hardware (which corresponds to a dozen H100s or so right now). Especially once HF comes out with their uncensored reproduction. There's so much opportunity to turn more compute into more money because of this, almost every company could theoretically benefit.
