I haven't ever seen it be as perfectly done as you've described. It is always shades of gray across teams and companies. They have most of what you described, but not uniformly across the company.
e.g. versioning may be enabled, but not cross region replication because it is cost prohibitive. Someone runs a job to clean up a bucket that includes deleting old versions. They point it at the wrong bucket or wrong path in the bucket. Or a malicious user does it on purpose. Monitors and alerts really tell you after the fact that you now have a major problem.
Also limits (like cross region concurrency) may not be known about until it is time to actually do a mass scale restore. DR tests might have been done but only in isolation of one app at a time. By the time you realize your mistake you're dealing with physics. Maybe AWS can bump it a bit to help you in that particular circumstance though.
No idea what happened at Atlassian. My only point is it is very hard to get it right without a huge amount of effort.
It is hard to get it perfectly right yes , missing by small margins or even doubled/trippled the declared time would be reasonable if it is just prediction problem.
However going like 100x is not probably cause this is hard to get 100 % accurate it look more likely deleted data as being rumoured and more importantly not actually having functioning backups that were ever tested and manually reconstructing from logs and other sources.
More than just RTO, they are not going to be able to meet RPO objectives for affected customers , depending on how much loss that is going to pretty bad.
e.g. versioning may be enabled, but not cross region replication because it is cost prohibitive. Someone runs a job to clean up a bucket that includes deleting old versions. They point it at the wrong bucket or wrong path in the bucket. Or a malicious user does it on purpose. Monitors and alerts really tell you after the fact that you now have a major problem.
Also limits (like cross region concurrency) may not be known about until it is time to actually do a mass scale restore. DR tests might have been done but only in isolation of one app at a time. By the time you realize your mistake you're dealing with physics. Maybe AWS can bump it a bit to help you in that particular circumstance though.
No idea what happened at Atlassian. My only point is it is very hard to get it right without a huge amount of effort.