You shouldn't feel bad about it: it just means you're sensible.
I've seen and heard people following that exact line of thought at $2, $30, $300, etc...
Predicting the future is by nature hard.
Predicting the future of a highly volatile phenomenon is psychologically hard.
Volatility on a log scale gets squashed a fair bit.
Not that I disagree with PlanB's model, but that's not what most people look at, especially not daytraders: PlanB's model's investment horizon is way too long for them.
You shouldn't feel bad about it: it just means you're sensible.
I've seen and heard people following that exact line of thought at $2, $30, $300, etc...
Predicting the future is by nature hard.
Predicting the future of a highly volatile phenomenon is psychologically hard.