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This isn’t usually case. There’s an “inverted bell curve” of failures. You get a lot of early failures then few in the middle of the lifecycle and then rapidly growing failures towards the end. It’s difficult to predict what that curve looks like and it depends on a combination of engineering, supply chain and luck.

You can usually work out where a product is on that lifecycle by looking at the amount of spare parts available on eBay. They are usually stripped down towards the end of the cycle rather than repaired as the rate of repairs is increasing. This is a good time to sell repairs as you have lots of cheap parts and lots of broken things on the market and no appetite for people to buy complete replacements.

Case in point on the bell curve, my 2018 MBA lasted two weeks before it died.



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