All "unreliable predictions" stem from the same general mistakes.
1) Prognosticating outside of one's expertise should raise a red flag.
2) Predictions should not rely only on scientific principles, but also involve economic analysis. (Larry Niven once wrote something to the effect: Anyone can write about teleport booths, but it takes a good author to come up with "flash crowds.")
3) Absolute laws are not always so simple to apply as it would first seem. (Example: the Halting Problem does not preclude useful bug checking software, just perfect bug checking software.)
Elder statesmen scientists aren't the only ones to make these mistakes. I posit that the common perception of reality is riddled with similar misapplication of fundamental knowledge. I also posit that there's huge profit potential hiding behind many such popular misapplications.
1) Prognosticating outside of one's expertise should raise a red flag.
2) Predictions should not rely only on scientific principles, but also involve economic analysis. (Larry Niven once wrote something to the effect: Anyone can write about teleport booths, but it takes a good author to come up with "flash crowds.")
3) Absolute laws are not always so simple to apply as it would first seem. (Example: the Halting Problem does not preclude useful bug checking software, just perfect bug checking software.)
Elder statesmen scientists aren't the only ones to make these mistakes. I posit that the common perception of reality is riddled with similar misapplication of fundamental knowledge. I also posit that there's huge profit potential hiding behind many such popular misapplications.