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My knowledge of predicting recessions is unchanged, but my way of looking at leaves on the ground is forever changed...


What he's referring to is not leaves on the ground, but upturned leaves on the trees. The conventional wisdom says that a storm is coming when you can see the backs of the leaves.


It’s not leaves on the ground, it’s the leaves on the branches to watch. When they’re upturned, it means that the pressure system is changing, which often precludes rain.




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