2-3 years is a great prediction if that's a stable window. But if the range is 0-3+ years, it's not clear how much benefit there is. The average growth cycle has been 4.7 years since WWII, so blindly predicting recession within the next 3 years will pan out ~60% of the time.
I guess a solid 0-3 prediction would still allow aggressive positions outside that window, and caution or shorting as you come up towards 3 years since the prediction. But precisely because that would be so effective for investors, I assume it can't be that consistent a signal.
I guess a solid 0-3 prediction would still allow aggressive positions outside that window, and caution or shorting as you come up towards 3 years since the prediction. But precisely because that would be so effective for investors, I assume it can't be that consistent a signal.