AIS over there is jammed and spoofed. Nobody wants to get bombed and certain Greek and Chinese owners run the strait dark with their crews apparently very happy about the danger pay.
Are they though, in the straight ? I'm not sure it's such a great move, TBH:
Given that the baddies clearly can locate ships and see that there's no transponder, and come to the conclusion they need. "Hmm, it turned off transponders and is now moving toward the straight. It's a tanker, and not one of ours, or Russia's or China's. Let's bomb it!"
Also, pragmatically, you could look at the transponders suddenly not showing up anymore as a sign of attempt of passage, especially if they show up later on the other side.
Technically all ships crossing the strait matter as their cargos end up being bought, sanctioned or not, Iran-friendly or not; they wouldn't have crossed otherwise. If we're talking about avoiding a global recession and worst case famine in some parts of the world, the oil and gas must start moving regardless of who is the shipowner.
> TL;DR: We tested Anthropic Mythos's showcase vulnerabilities on small, cheap, open-weights models. They recovered much of the same analysis. AI cybersecurity capability is very jagged: it doesn't scale smoothly with model size, and the moat is the system into which deep security expertise is built, not the model itself. Mythos validates the approach but it does not settle it yet.
Notably, Kimi K2 and GPT-OSS-120b do quite well when provided with the isolated context. Article seems to be heavily LLM-assisted, but the content itself is good.
Nobody is forcing anybody to place the bets, but if you see credible money flows into eg. Middle East cease fire bets, you can decide to fill up your tank today, or not. We can’t think for you here, if you don’t see anything useful in the price then it’s time to educate yourself until you do. You should consider these bets more trustworthy than any news you read in mainstream media. There might even be a way to fund journalism here, though ethics are quite muddy indeed.
On prediction markets there are plenty of inefficiencies; e.g. an MM could take both sides of the bet when odds don’t add up to 1, which apparently happens more often than we all think
Come to think of it, what insider trading in oil even is…? Oil isn’t a company and doesn’t have any capacity for material non-public information. The biggest players are all insiders on this market anyway. Why should Barron be prosecuted and Trafigura not…?
Exactly. Barter is super insanely expensive in comparison with the most manipulated paper markets; thus, if you closed the current markets, the participants would be very highly incentivized to create a new one, which would likely be worse on all accounts.
reply